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Overall frack crews and rigs remain mostly unaffected by much lower natural gas prices. In the Lower 48, frack crews are slightly lower since September 1, 2022, while rigs are slightly higher since September 1, 2022.
Hyperion’s real-time tracking of frack crews and rigs confirms what the fracking and drilling service providers have been saying in their recent 4th quarter 2022 earnings reports that much lower natural gas prices will have little effect on their fracking and drilling rig service businesses. The Lower 48 frack count is down a little bit since September 1,2022 even after natural gas prices, as measured by UNG, are down 73% since September 1, 2022. Lower48 rigs are slightly higher since September 1, 2022. The oil market has a much larger impact on the fracking and drilling rig service businesses and for now, the oil market has held relatively strong at around $80/Bbl for WTI.
In the Northeast, where natural gas production is dominant, frack crews are at 36 in February 2023, down from a high of 47 in September. Northeast rigs nearly unchanged from 63 on September 1, 2022.
In the Haynesville basin, where natural gas also dominates, frack crews are at 23 in February 2023, down from 28 on September 1, 2022. Haynesville rigs are at 79 in February 2023, unchanged from 79 on September 1, 2022.
In West Texas (which does not include the NM side of the Permian), where oil dominates, frack crews are at 89 in February 2023, up from 83 on September 1, 2022. West Texas rigs are at 282 in February 2023, up from 262 on September 1, 2022.
Summary
Overall Lower 48 frack crews and rigs have not been affected by much lower natural gas prices since September 1, 2022. Frack crews and rigs have been unchanged in the dominant natural gas producing regions of the Northeast and the Haynesville. The oil dominant region of West Texas has seen an increase in frack crews and rigs since September 1, 2022, despite much lower natural gas prices during this time period.
