Capability

Both sides
of the equation.

US natural gas, balanced every day.

Hyperion balances US natural gas supply against every demand term every day and shows where storage is heading, with daily history back to January 2024 and daily forecasts two years forward.

Illustrative stacked chart: supply minus residential and commercial, power burn, industrial, LNG feedgas and exports equals storage, with a summer surplus and a winter deficit
Supply minus demand is storage: a summer surplus flows in, a winter deficit draws it down. Illustrative, not actual data.

CADENCE

Daily

Balances refreshed intraday.

HORIZON

2 years

Of daily forecasts.

GEOGRAPHY

5 regions

The EIA storage regions.

SCENARIOS

25 years

Of historical weather to test.

HISTORY

Jan 2024

Start of daily history.

SCOPE

Every term

Supply and each demand component.

What Is In the Balance

Every term, modeled on its own drivers.

A storage outlook is only as reliable as the terms that feed it. Each part of US supply and demand is modeled separately, on what actually moves it, then balanced against the others. A balancing factor reconciles state-reported production with reported storage, so the balance ties out week to week.

The terms in the Hyperion balance and their drivers: residential and commercial on degree days weighted by population and gas-heated homes; industrial on weather, seasonality and GDP; power burn on weather, the forward gas curve, load growth and renewables; LNG feedgas terminal by terminal with maintenance and new trains; Mexican exports on weather and pipeline capacity; fuel and pipeline use tied to production and demand; production state-reported by region; Canadian and LNG imports driven by weather
Demand terms in green, supply terms in blue, each with the drivers it is modeled on.

Method

A baseline that keeps the peaks.

Most baselines average ten years of weather, then run one forecast. Hyperion runs each of the last ten weather years through its demand models and averages the ten demand outcomes.

Demand responds to cold unevenly, so the order matters. Averaging demand keeps winter and summer peaks in the baseline instead of smoothing them away. The storage baseline is built the same way.

Illustrative chart: the average of ten demand outcomes keeps a sharper winter peak than demand calculated from averaged weather
Averaging outcomes (green) keeps the peak that averaging weather (dashed) smooths away. Illustrative, not actual data.
Illustrative chart: storage crests in late November, then falls to different winter lows under mild, typical and cold weather
Same starting point, three winters, three different lows. Illustrative, not actual data.

Scenarios

Test any winter.

Choose the baseline or any of the last 25 weather years. Every weather-driven term responds, from residential demand to LNG feedgas to imports and exports, and storage follows.

Put a mild winter next to a polar-vortex winter and see how far apart the end-of-season lows land.

Regional Detail

Regional where it counts.

A national number hides where the tightness is. Production and every demand term break out across the five EIA storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific.

Schematic of the five EIA storage regions, each with its own supply and demand
Each region carries its own supply and demand. Schematic, bar lengths are illustrative.

Two Terms Up Close

Where the balance moves fastest.

LNG feedgas, terminal by terminal

Each terminal is modeled as weather-sensitive use of its capacity, with known maintenance built in ahead of time and unplanned events added as they surface. New trains are tracked with satellite imagery and regulatory filings, so start dates follow what is happening on site.

Power burn that follows price

Power burn answers to price as well as weather. The model takes the forward gas curve as an input, so a move in the curve shows up in projected gas-fired generation. Load growth and renewable additions are built in for each region.

In the Platform

The balance, on one screen.

Supply against every demand term, the storage outlook, the five regions and your weather scenarios in one view.

Illustrative dashboard: daily US natural gas supply against stacked demand terms, the storage outlook, the five EIA storage regions and a weather scenario picker
Illustrative dashboard with synthesized data.

Who Uses It

One balance, three decisions.

The same balance answers different questions depending on the desk asking.

Gas traders

Watch the storage week take shape day by day, and test the winter you are worried about.

Utilities and power desks

Read power burn against the forward gas curve and the weather, region by region.

LNG and midstream

Follow feedgas by terminal inside the full US balance, with maintenance and new trains built in.

Access

However your desk works.

Quick View

A fast read of the balance in the Hyperion application.

Dashboards

Ready-made demand and balance dashboards built on Atlas, with no credits needed.

API

Pull the balance into your own systems.

Data tables

Full history and forecast for your own models, with LNG feedgas by terminal in its own table.

FAQ

Questions buyers ask.

How often does the balance update?

Daily, with intraday refreshes.

How far back and how far forward does it go?

Daily history starts in January 2024. Daily forecasts run two years forward.

Why average demand outcomes instead of averaging weather?

Demand does not rise in a straight line with cold. Averaging ten years of weather first produces a mild, smooth year that never happened, and the demand peaks disappear with it. Running each weather year through the demand models and then averaging the results keeps those peaks in the baseline.

Which weather years can I test?

The baseline or any of the last 25 weather years. Every weather-driven term responds, and storage follows.

How does the balance tie to reported storage?

A balancing factor reconciles state-reported production with reported storage, so the balance ties out week to week.

Is the balance regional?

Yes. Production and every demand term break out across the five EIA storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific.

How do I access it?

Through Quick View in the Hyperion application, ready-made dashboards built on Atlas, the API, or data tables for your own models.

Get Started

See where storage lands.

Walk through the balance, the weather scenarios and the dashboards with our natural gas analysts.